D1 NCS

Re: D1 NCS

Postby maxlax » Mon May 23, 2011 1:19 pm

Predictions for wensdays games?
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby FHSrent » Mon May 23, 2011 1:52 pm

It helps that a kid who is NOT afraid of the ball is going to be alot more effective than one who is. It's a personality trait that cannot be left behind. Quick reflexes needed in all of them, and each time they play, and exercise that specific nerve pathway, no matter what sport, the better they react next time. That's why Bob teaches them the rudiments that he does: muscle memory and reflexes. Ice Hockey is more like Lax than Soceer, as the puck and the little yellow ball move faster. (My kid was shooting at 62 MPH in 8th grade. I bet Emily Klein shoots well over 70... so defending that is harder than it looks) But, other than those points (which I think are huge), they are totally different, I agree.

All that an athlete does helps them. Tennis players catch better than the average kid (once they learn to give) because they are so used to moving towards the ball.

Wed:
I would like to see FHS win, of course, no offense to CAL, but I cannot predict that one with a whole lot of certainty. I am saying FHS by 3.
CHS vs. Davis: I pick RJ's team by 10....
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby parent2013 » Mon May 23, 2011 3:56 pm

Well Maxprep has some interesting factoids.
Davis goalies are the best in NCS in terms of goals against. In terms of save percentage they are very good as well.
Davis split with EBAL teams losing to Cal and Foothill but winning against MV and Amador. Lost against SI as did CHS and all other EBAL teams.
If their goalies are as good as their stats suggest, Davis could put them to work with a packed in defense around the 8 meter line and force a defensive struggle.
CHS wins, don't get me wrong, but it might not be the run away score we EBAL'ers are assuming. Call it 15-8. If the coach wants to have a track meet against CHS, call it 22-8.

Cal vs Foothill is tough. On the one hand Cal won 12-11 then Foothill won 20-11. I have no idea why Foothill clobbered them yet lost by 1 in two games.

Incidentally looking at Maxprep shows goalie data and FHS goalie is almost as good as CHS goalie in goals against, 8/game vs 7/game. Not so much in save percentage with 40% vs 52% for CHS. Where the Cal goalie is I don't know since the data isn't on Maxprep. Given how many goals Cal's has allowed I don't see how her's can be much better than FHS.

I'm still feeling Cal wins, but its a nail biter.
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby FHSrent » Mon May 23, 2011 6:00 pm

They only played each other twice...

They (FHS) lost by 1 in 1 game, when they played like crap. 1 game they won by 10... when they played well. Now they are missing an attack player, but they have alot of other fire power. Mids and D still on and still fast. Lutz seems to have picked up where Milus left off, feeding very well, scoring alot and assisting alot. With that many good players, they are just fine with 1 injured player (no offense to the injured kid, I feel really badly for her). But they can do it IF THEY play WELL.

I have not seen CAL play much, so I can't compare what they thought of those games in terms of how they looked compared to how they could look. They could have thought they played like crap both games, in which case FHS could be in trouble. RIGHT?

I will say, when foothill is on, they are really on. But in the off position, like their first game against CAL, and their first game against MV, and their 2nd game against CHS... well, they can stink up the field. Hard to watch.

They have been playing very well lately, and they have the home field advantage... we shall see... :)

TRack meet? Yeah, no one can run like RJ's girls...
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby CaliTiger83 » Mon May 23, 2011 7:52 pm

Parent 2013
"Davis goalies are the best in NCS in terms of goals against. In terms of save percentage they are very good as well.
Davis split with EBAL teams losing to Cal and Foothill but winning against MV and Amador. Lost against SI as did CHS and all other EBAL teams.
If their goalies are as good as their stats suggest, Davis could put them to work with a packed in defense around the 8 meter line and force a defensive struggle.
CHS wins, don't get me wrong, but it might not be the run away score we EBAL'ers are assuming. Call it 15-8. If the coach wants to have a track meet against CHS, call it 22-8."

The stats for the CHS goalie are misleading since the starter has only played one full game since starting league. Rick generally substitutes the other goalie at half time or during the second half. That happened in all but one game, the last game against AV. Many of the goals against were not scored against the starter, although that is not generally reported. I haven't seen any of the other teams substitute, but that could be because of the score of the game.

I do think the CHS goalie is the best. She does things outside of the goal and challenges shooters among other things. II haven't seen any of the other goalies in the league do that, and given the scores against them, they 've had plenty of opportunity.
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby laxdad2012 » Tue May 24, 2011 9:03 am

I don't think "goals against" is a useful stat for rating a goalie because there are so many other factors. How good is the defense? How many possessions does the team give up? How good is the opposition? In the case or Davis, they have shown they can hang with EBAL teams for sure with wins over MV and AV, but their league is very weak by comparison to the EBAL. They've won two or three straight undefeated championships in league only to sputter out in NCS. So to look at goals against over the whole season is misleading. I think save percentage is the most accurate way to compare goalies - and even that stat has its faults.
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby laxadaisical » Tue May 24, 2011 12:11 pm

Since goalie talk is moved to the goalie thread I'll put my two cents in on predictions.

I think Davis has made a historic run for their program and is well deserving of respect after knocking off both Amador and Monte Vista this year. I think that Carondelet will beat them by 7 or 8.

I think Foothill will win over Cal. I think it will be by about 5. They're tough at home. They were missing the younger Klein in that first game when they lost by the slimmest margin, and that kid makes a difference when she's on the field. They're managing to gut out tougher games lately like their game at Amador. The only bad game they had in the second half of the season was to Carondelet. I think it's just their year to make the final. Cal is strong, and if they win I can't say I'll be outrageously shocked, but I think FHS is in their groove right now.

Just my opinion.
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby NotthePatientOne » Tue May 24, 2011 1:16 pm

If Cal plays like they did against AV last Friday, I would say the game would be very even. If they played like they did in the previous Amador games, I would go with Foothill. The way Cal played their last game was totally different then their previous games. When I said speed previously, everyone assumed that I meant coast to coast then shoot, that hardly happened. Every runner had two outlets keeping pace. We had to fight for every pass, there was no letup anywhere on the field. Faceoff that flew towards our players never made it into the Amador sticks
Last edited by NotthePatientOne on Wed May 25, 2011 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby CaliTiger83 » Tue May 24, 2011 2:24 pm

If Cal plays like they played their last game against Carondelet, then they win. They played very well as a complete team with great ball movement and overall team speed. Moreover, they didn't tire out or let up. Key injuries also come into play. While both teams are deserving and their play has improved over the course of the season, Cal appears to be peaking at the right time to move on and it doesn't hurt that they are having good goalie play, regardless of the opinions who is the "best" goalie. Everyone one of those goalies would trade the "opinionated" title for the title of NCS Champ!
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Re: D1 NCS

Postby laxdad2012 » Wed May 25, 2011 10:57 pm

Carondelet 20, Davis 7 and Foothill 8, Cal 7. That settles it. The seedings were dead on. I was at the Foothill/Cal game and it was a great chess match of a game. Cal took a slow it down and grind it out strategy that worked well keeping Foothill from running away like they did last time. But I was impressed with Foothill's defense. The goalies both had strong games but I think the Foothill kid was clutch at the end. The game was back and forth overall until Foothill got on a run in the second half. But Cal almost pulled off a great comeback. They got within 1 and had the ball with a minute left and the Falcons D shut them down. A worthy semifinal. Both teams gave it their all.
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