Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby laxadaisical » Sun May 08, 2011 7:50 pm

With their big win over Foothill on Friday, Carondelet clinched outright their first EBAL title in girls lacrosse. Davis are the BSAL champs. Acalanes are the DFAL champs. Marin Catholic are MCAL champs. The last week still determines a bunch in the EBAL with the 2-5 place spots still completely up for grabs.

Foothill, Amador and California are tied at 8-4 with Monte Vista a game behind at 7-5. But Cal still has to face Carondelet, and Amador has the unenviable task of facing both Carondelet and Foothill. Monte Vista has the easiest schedule of all four teams and should win both, but Foothill is a game ahead of MV and has two winnable games. Here's my guess how the top 5 plays out in EBAL:

1. Carondelet 14-0 - no reason to think they will let up now, not sure anyone in NCS can touch them
2. Foothill 10-4 - two wins this week and they lock up #2
3. California 9-5 - Friday's triple overtime win over MV locks them into #3 even with a loss to Carondelet
4. Monte Vista 9-5 - they win two this week, but two losses to Cal keep them in 4th
5. Amador Valley 8-6 - tough way to end the regular season against #1 and #2

For NCS I would insert Davis at #4 below Foothill and Cal (who both beat them), and bounce MV and AV (who Davis beat) to #5 and #6, respectively.

The one game that's most likely a wild-card is the Foothill-Amador game. Yes, Foothill beat them handily by 9 at home, but this time it's at Amador, on senior night, and the Falcons haven't done as well in away games. Their losses to MV and Cal were away games and they were blown out at Carondelet after hanging with them for a while at home. Foothill is looking very strong these days (in spite of the Carondelet loss), but if there's one game that could be a shocker it would be that one. Probably worth checking out. If Amador won that one and all four teams were 9-5 I still think Foothill gets #2 on their recent wins over MV and Cal, and their better overall record. But who knows? I wouldn't envy the NCS selectors if that happens. Amador beat Cal twice, Cal beat Monte Vista twice and Monte Vista beat Amador twice. If Foothill split with all three how do you figure that one out??

And if Carondelet rests their starters and somehow drops a game this week then all bets are off.
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby NotthePatientOne » Mon May 09, 2011 9:30 am

Is Marin Catholic Division II?
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby laxadaisical » Mon May 09, 2011 9:50 am

Yes. The divisions are based on individual school size instead of divisions by league, so teams from the same league can be in different divisions. Acalanes, Marin Catholic and Miramonte will probably be the 1-3 seeds in division II.

If you scroll down to the bottom of this page you can see the laxpower rankings of each division separately:

http://www.laxpower.com/update11/bingrl/rating02.php
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby NotthePatientOne » Mon May 09, 2011 10:05 am

Does NCS go strickly off this? Everyone but laxpower has MV ahead of AV
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby laxadaisical » Mon May 09, 2011 11:49 am

As far as I know, NCS doesn't use laxpower or maxpreps or any of those sites at all when seeding the brackets. I think the committee looks at their records and head-to-head results and makes their own determinations. So they don't always match with laxpower since laxpower is strictly based on mathematical algorithms, but they're usually similar.
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby Scorekeeper » Tue May 10, 2011 6:04 pm

Historically, the seeding committee is composed of coaches, etc., from other sports who look at the records of each team and let each coach please their case for five minutes. The results, not surprisingly, come up pretty close to the laxpower.com rankings because the coaches are looking at scores versus common opponents, etc. The human brain essentially does in 90 minutes what the laxpower algorithm calculates from a full season of input.

There are occasionally some surprises, usually at the bottom of the seeds, because a coach decides not to bother pleading their case, but the results are usually pretty rational. The game location for each round usually favors the higher rated team, but a league champion (MCAL, DFAL, EBAL, etc.) can have precedence over a higher ranked team which is not a league champion AND a hosting team must have available a field meeting certain standards for fencing, lighting, etc. (Hey, the CIF needs to make money on this.)

Another question: how many teams will there be in each division playoff now that there are two divisions?
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby maxlax » Tue May 10, 2011 8:42 pm

cal 14, san ramon 5
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby FHSrent » Tue May 10, 2011 9:00 pm

Foothill 19, Granada 7? Is that right?

I think Foothill will beat AV. Poor AV is having a hard time. Young team. Foothill has a bit more power and confidence. They lost one of their shooters to injury over the weekend. But even without her, I think a win over AV is eminent. And I think they will beat the play off contenders they meet until CHS again... even without the injured player.

Once more, I say, "FHS vs, CHS in the finals!" betcha $100 bucks... and once they get there, CHS is pretty amazing. FHS will need to bring their entire game, and finesse their passing to a tee to beat them... hmmmm...

Anything is possible.... if you just believe...

Love the game...
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby FHSrent » Tue May 10, 2011 9:00 pm

Foothill 19, Granada 9? Is that right?

I think Foothill will beat AV. Poor AV is having a hard time. Young team. Foothill has a bit more power and confidence. They lost one of their shooters to injury over the weekend. But even without her, I think a win over AV is eminent. And I think they will beat the play off contenders they meet until CHS again... even without the injured player.

Once more, I say, "FHS vs, CHS in the finals!" betcha $100 bucks... and once they get there, CHS is pretty amazing. FHS will need to bring their entire game, and finesse their passing to a tee to beat them... hmmmm...

Anything is possible.... if you just believe...

Love the game...
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Re: Week of May 9 - Final Week!

Postby NotthePatientOne » Tue May 10, 2011 9:23 pm

Carondelet 17 AV 11
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