NCS seedings - your projections

NCS seedings - your projections

Postby laxtree » Sun Apr 17, 2011 8:11 am

The NCS seedings will be out in just under a month. As of where things stand today....what would be your seeding rankings? (reminder: there are 2 NCS divisions this year)
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby maxlax » Sun Apr 17, 2011 7:55 pm

Right now I would have to say that Carondelet would be the number one seed in NCS, but the season is young and there is no telling what will happen. :)
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby laxtree » Sun Apr 17, 2011 9:03 pm

Maxlax - of course there's no telling what will happen - but that's the fun of making projections.
But the season isn't still young - it' more than half over - :P . So it's time to throw on some big boy pants and throw some predictions out there.
For Division 1 NCS seedings, I'll lob up the following list (fully admitting that I'm totally guessing on a few of these)
1. Carondelet
2. Cal
3. MV
4. Foothill
5. Amador
6. Davis
7. Berkeley
8. Dublin
9. D. Valley
10. San Ramon
11. Granada
12. Las Lomas
13, Northgate
14. Redwood
15. Livermore
16. Clayton Valley

As the teacher says in the Ferris Bueller movie.....anyone? anyone?
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby maxlax » Sun Apr 17, 2011 9:06 pm

I think I would put Amador 3rd instead of 5th
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby laxadaisical » Tue Apr 19, 2011 8:47 am

I'll give it a try.

DII seems straightforward. Acalanes and Marin Catholic should make the final, with Miramonte being the only team likely to spoil that scenario. I think Acalanes experience playing tougher teams helps them win the championship game.

In DI the top 2 seeds are pretty clear right now. Cal gets their shot to take the top spot tonight.
1. Carondelet
2. California

The next four get a little tricky. In spite of what Laxpower and WestSideLax seem to think based on their overall record, I think Monte Vista's head to head wins over Foothill and Amador matter more and boost them to the 3 seed.
3. Monte Vista

The next three seeds depend on the results of tonight's Foothill/Amador clash. Amador beat Cal, who beat Foothill (both close games). But Foothill beat Davis by 6, and Davis beat Amador by 4. Amador gets the edge at the moment for being better in league, and if they win tonight, this stands. But if Foothill wins tonight, AV could drop as low as # 6 since Davis did beat them by 4 and will probably be a league champion. I'm not buying that AV is a #3 yet, but it's possible in the next couple of weeks as they all face each other a second time.
4. Amador Valley
5. Foothill
6. Davis

After that I stick with Laxpower.
7. Las Lomas
8. Campolindo
9. San Ramon Valley
10. Redwood
11. Berkeley
12. Granada
13. Livermore (I think they could beat Granada tonight)
14. Dougherty Valley
15. Dublin
16. Northgate
And only winless Clayton Valley is left out.
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby maxlax » Tue Apr 19, 2011 8:54 am

carondelet and cal play tomarrow so we will have to wait to see what happens there
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby Billax » Tue Apr 19, 2011 9:20 am

laxadaisical,
The LaxPower rating that many folks use for seeding within a Region is "Reg In," the second column shown in the LaxPower display, rather than the "Norm PR." The Reg In ranking shows only head-to-head rankings in NCS games and eliminates all games teams play outside of NCS. By that measure, here is LaxPower's rank ordering for the top five NCS teams this morning:
Carondelet 99.90
Cal High 92.28
Monte Vista 92.28
Foothill 92.14
Amador 91.22

LaxPower's Reg In for all other NCS teams is below 90. Of course, LaxPower's rankings are statistically valid only to +/-3 goals and grant a home field advantage of around a goal, but it's better than nothing.

FWIW.
Sports don't build character, they reveal it. - Heywood Broun
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby laxadaisical » Wed Apr 20, 2011 8:37 am

Thanks Billax. That definitely helps add some perspective. Based on Foothill's big win over Amador last night (I had it pegged as a 1- or 2-goal squeaker and was inclined to give the advantage to the Dons just based on the last 5 years of history between the two teams) the Falcons shoot up to #2 in "Reg In":

Carondelet 99.90
Foothill 92.89
Acalanes 92.56 (DII)
California 92.29
Monte Vista 92.26
Amador Valley 90.41

This isn't taking into account last night's 17-5 win by Monte Vista over San Ramon, which wasn't posted yet, or tonight's Carondelet/California clash. Once those scores are posted we'll have a better idea of how everyone looks with one half of the EBAL season in the books. I wouldn't jump Foothill into the #2 spot yet, but they'll have their chance to prove themselves in the second half of the season. So for now I'd have my NCS DI top 6 amended to:

Carondelet
California
Monte Vista
Foothill
Davis
Amador Valley
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby maxlax » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:21 am

Could u explain to me why there would put foothill before both monte vista and cal when both teams beat them and both teams have more wins and losses
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Re: NCS seedings - your projections

Postby laxadaisical » Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:36 am

Legitimate question. If I understood Laxpower's math I might have some insight. Margins of victory? But that's why I wouldn't change my seedings.
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